Market Updates

Market Update: November 22, 2023

The NYMEX natural gas prices fell this week as strong production and warmer temperatures continue to apply downside pressure. Healthy storage has been the result of these bearish fundamentals.

After last week’s two-week storage report from the EIA, inventory levels now sit at 3.833 TCF. The latest report stated a 6 BCF withdrawal for week ending November 3rd and an injection of 60 BCF for week ending November 10th. Storage now sits 198 BCF above last year and 203 BCF above the 5-year average. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, storage will come out later this morning instead of on Thursday. Some analysts are predicting a small build which will probably be the last injection of the season.

NYMEX Natural Gas Futures

Electric Pricing Forward Calendar Strips

Temperature Outlook: November 29- December 5, 2023 | NOAA

Crude oil prices traded around the mid $70 mark this week as traders wait for this week’s inventory report and the latest OPEC + meeting that is scheduled to take place on Sunday. Many analysts expect the current production cuts from Russia and Saudia Arabia to continue and expect some pressure will be applied to other producers to restrain output as well. A report from Ritterbusch expects a limited supply of extra production could be taken off the market that would probably equate to short-term support.

The latest rig count produced by Baker Hughes stated a net increase of two rigs bringing the new total to 618 rigs. Oil rigs rose by six, while gas rigs fell by four. One year ago, the total rig count sat at 782 rigs.

The December contract rolled off the board at $77.60.

This week’s additional graphic from the EIA depicts the storage situation as we head into winter withdrawal season.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Working gas in underground storage compared with the 5-year maximum and minimum | EIA

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